Thursday, September 11, 2014

Coincidence or Fact



The belief in cause and effect is well held by the general public. We all get the experience of stubbing our toe and then having it hurt after.  This is a very basic form of cause and effect. Something happened and there was a result. When taken to the logical extreme people will often think that this means all effects have a cause, though just because something happened does not mean that what preceded it was the cause.  This is called Post hoc ergo propter hoc, is a logical fallacy that is the equivalent of stubbing your toe then experiencing a headache. Then blaming your headache on stubbed your toe.
All these meteor sightings must be linked, rig... POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC!  Batman Slapping RobinThe best way to avoid this is to make sure that your conclusion is based on real evidence. Make sure that event two was caused by event one. This effort to prove causation not correlation will help keep you from falling in this logical hole and being misled. When you stubbed your toe then experience a headache there is a correlation between the two, but what it you also hit your head at the same time? This would be causation.

 The Group




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